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Feb 16 2009, 10:50 am
Dismal scientists: how the crash is reshaping economics
With the chattering classes consumed by concern for the devastated value of their 401K funds, and their suddenly precarious lifestyles, there has been much anger and scorn directed at those former masters of the universe, financiers.
But the shock to the world of finance has been echoed by a shock to the world of academic economics that is just as profound.
In the long post WWII boom, as free market ideology triumphed, economists have won for themselves a privileged place inside academia.
First there is the cash. It astonished some when Washington University, a school with an economics department of modest prestige, hired economists David Levine and Michele Boldrin by offering salaries well in excess of $500,000. But most high ranked economics departments have professors earning in excess of $300,000. Not much by the pornographic standards of finance, but a fat paycheck compared to your average English or Physics professor.
It is not just the stars. Journeyman assistant professors in economics routinely come in at $100,000 or more. And, unlike the hard sciences, they do this fresh from their PhDs, without a publication to their name and without years of low pay as post-docs.
The high salaries have been accompanied by dramatic declines in the teaching burden. The research demands of our advanced science leave little time for the classroom. In good universities faculty typically teach only two courses a year - one of which has to be a graduate seminar. The masses in the Econ 1 classes are often abandoned to the tender mercies of graduate students.
Then there is the economics "Nobel" Prize. Not a real Nobel, but a prize funded by the Bank of Sweden in honor of Alfred Nobel, with all the royal trappings of the Nobel. That makes economics star players really attractive to universities. When Edward Prescott of Arizona State won the Nobel he was paraded at half time at a football game. There is nothing like a Nobel for luster and fund-raising.
Why did academic economics generate so much prestige? Sure, modern economics is technically demanding. But so, for example, are theoretical physics and archeology, and physics and archeology professors are (relatively) dirt poor.
The technical demands helped limit the supply of economists. But what drove demand was the unquenchable thirst for economists by banks, government agencies, and business schools - the Feds, the Treasury, the IMF, the World Bank, the ECB. Economics had powerful insights to offer the world, insights worth a lot of treasure. Economics was powerful voodoo. Any major university or research institute wanted to arm itself with this potency.
The current recession has revealed the weaknesses in the structures of modern capitalism. But it also revealed as useless the mathematical contortions of academic economics. There is no totemic power. This for two reasons:
(1) Almost no-one predicted the world wide downtown. Academic economists were confident that episodes like the Great Depression had been confined to the dust bins of history. There was indeed much recent debate about the sources of "The Great Moderation" in modern economies, the declining significance of business cycles.
Indeed as we have seen this year on the academic job market, macroeconomists had turned their considerable talents to a bizarre variety of rococo academic elaborations. With nothing of importance to explain, why not turn to the mysteries of online dating, for example.
I myself was so confident of the consensus of the end of the business cycle that I persuaded by wife after the collapse of Lehman Brothers to invest all her retirement savings in the stock market, confident that the Fed would soon make things right and we could profit from the panic of a gullible public. The line "Where is my money, idiot?" is her's.
(2) The debate about the bank bailout, and the stimulus package, has all revolved around issues that are entirely at the level of Econ 1. What is the multiplier from government spending? Does government spending crowd out private spending? How quickly can you increase government spending? If you got a A in college in Econ 1 you are an expert in this debate: fully an equal of Summers and Geithner.
The bailout debate has also been conducted in terms that would be quite familiar to economists in the 1920s and 1930s. There has essentially been no advance in our knowledge in 80 years.
It has seen people like Brad De Long accuse distinguished macro-economists like Eugene Fama and John Cochrane of the University of Chicago of at least one "elementary, freshman mistake."
It has seen Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, guided by Larry Summers, one of the most respected economists of our time, produce a bailout plan for the US financial system stunning in its faltering vagueness.
Bizarrely, suddenly everyone is interested in economics, but most academic economists are ill-equipped to address these issues.
Recently a group of economists affiliated with the Cato Institute ran an ad in the New York Times opposing the Obama's stimulus plan. As chair of my department I tried to arrange a public debate between one of the signatories and a proponent of fiscal stimulus -- thinking that would be a timely and lively session. But the signatory, a fully accredited university macroeconomist, declined the opportunity for public defense of his position on the grounds that "all I know on this issue I got from Greg Mankiw's blog -- I really am not equipped to debate this with anyone."
Academic economics will no doubt survive this shock to its prestige.
Will we be as well paid? A recent article in the Wall Street Journal suggests the days of the $500,000 economics professor may have passed.
But more importantly, will the focus of academic economics change? That is hard to tell. But I would rate the chances of Chrysler producing once again a competitive US automobile at least as high as the chances of academic economics learning any lesson from this downturn. (What was the price of that Chrysler stock we bought, dear?)
But the shock to the world of finance has been echoed by a shock to the world of academic economics that is just as profound.
In the long post WWII boom, as free market ideology triumphed, economists have won for themselves a privileged place inside academia.
First there is the cash. It astonished some when Washington University, a school with an economics department of modest prestige, hired economists David Levine and Michele Boldrin by offering salaries well in excess of $500,000. But most high ranked economics departments have professors earning in excess of $300,000. Not much by the pornographic standards of finance, but a fat paycheck compared to your average English or Physics professor.
It is not just the stars. Journeyman assistant professors in economics routinely come in at $100,000 or more. And, unlike the hard sciences, they do this fresh from their PhDs, without a publication to their name and without years of low pay as post-docs.
The high salaries have been accompanied by dramatic declines in the teaching burden. The research demands of our advanced science leave little time for the classroom. In good universities faculty typically teach only two courses a year - one of which has to be a graduate seminar. The masses in the Econ 1 classes are often abandoned to the tender mercies of graduate students.
Then there is the economics "Nobel" Prize. Not a real Nobel, but a prize funded by the Bank of Sweden in honor of Alfred Nobel, with all the royal trappings of the Nobel. That makes economics star players really attractive to universities. When Edward Prescott of Arizona State won the Nobel he was paraded at half time at a football game. There is nothing like a Nobel for luster and fund-raising.
Why did academic economics generate so much prestige? Sure, modern economics is technically demanding. But so, for example, are theoretical physics and archeology, and physics and archeology professors are (relatively) dirt poor.
The technical demands helped limit the supply of economists. But what drove demand was the unquenchable thirst for economists by banks, government agencies, and business schools - the Feds, the Treasury, the IMF, the World Bank, the ECB. Economics had powerful insights to offer the world, insights worth a lot of treasure. Economics was powerful voodoo. Any major university or research institute wanted to arm itself with this potency.
The current recession has revealed the weaknesses in the structures of modern capitalism. But it also revealed as useless the mathematical contortions of academic economics. There is no totemic power. This for two reasons:
(1) Almost no-one predicted the world wide downtown. Academic economists were confident that episodes like the Great Depression had been confined to the dust bins of history. There was indeed much recent debate about the sources of "The Great Moderation" in modern economies, the declining significance of business cycles.
Indeed as we have seen this year on the academic job market, macroeconomists had turned their considerable talents to a bizarre variety of rococo academic elaborations. With nothing of importance to explain, why not turn to the mysteries of online dating, for example.
I myself was so confident of the consensus of the end of the business cycle that I persuaded by wife after the collapse of Lehman Brothers to invest all her retirement savings in the stock market, confident that the Fed would soon make things right and we could profit from the panic of a gullible public. The line "Where is my money, idiot?" is her's.
(2) The debate about the bank bailout, and the stimulus package, has all revolved around issues that are entirely at the level of Econ 1. What is the multiplier from government spending? Does government spending crowd out private spending? How quickly can you increase government spending? If you got a A in college in Econ 1 you are an expert in this debate: fully an equal of Summers and Geithner.
The bailout debate has also been conducted in terms that would be quite familiar to economists in the 1920s and 1930s. There has essentially been no advance in our knowledge in 80 years.
It has seen people like Brad De Long accuse distinguished macro-economists like Eugene Fama and John Cochrane of the University of Chicago of at least one "elementary, freshman mistake."
It has seen Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, guided by Larry Summers, one of the most respected economists of our time, produce a bailout plan for the US financial system stunning in its faltering vagueness.
Bizarrely, suddenly everyone is interested in economics, but most academic economists are ill-equipped to address these issues.
Recently a group of economists affiliated with the Cato Institute ran an ad in the New York Times opposing the Obama's stimulus plan. As chair of my department I tried to arrange a public debate between one of the signatories and a proponent of fiscal stimulus -- thinking that would be a timely and lively session. But the signatory, a fully accredited university macroeconomist, declined the opportunity for public defense of his position on the grounds that "all I know on this issue I got from Greg Mankiw's blog -- I really am not equipped to debate this with anyone."
Academic economics will no doubt survive this shock to its prestige.
Will we be as well paid? A recent article in the Wall Street Journal suggests the days of the $500,000 economics professor may have passed.
But more importantly, will the focus of academic economics change? That is hard to tell. But I would rate the chances of Chrysler producing once again a competitive US automobile at least as high as the chances of academic economics learning any lesson from this downturn. (What was the price of that Chrysler stock we bought, dear?)










Wonderful post. You can't beat spirited, honest, funny and well informed.
Roubini is said to have predicted the bust, is that correct?
How useful and accurate are the current econometric models? Which are the best, in your opinion? There are some open source econometric models, are any of these any good?
What are the most important fundamental disputes among economists?
Is the IDEAS ranking of economists useful as a way of gauging the influence/importance of an economist? For example, Stiglitz is 1, Barro is 3, Summers is 11, Krugman is 14, Mankiw is 22, Bernanke is 38, etc.
What is the equivalent of VoxEU.org in the states?
It's hard to find a Hayekian macroeconomist who _didn't_ predict an economic downturn, and every one of them explained to the profession why Great Depressions had not been confined to the dust bins of history.
You have your Hayekians. Then you have what the AEA in the 1990s called the "idiot savants". Most of the "idiot savant" math jock economists are not very good economists -- and they are certainly not very good "free market" economists.
The "prestige" of the profession comes from the "idiot savant" mathematics and statistical number crunching. It doesn't come from understanding and explaining the "free market" -- most of them don't understand it.
You are on target when you go after the idiot savant math jock statistical game playing and tinker toy model building. But the "free market" stuff is mostly bogus -- the "math jock" economists don't understand the free market, and many of them are consistent critics and big government advocates, Stiglitz and Krugman, and on and on.
You wrote:
(1) Almost no-one predicted the world wide downtown. Academic economists were confident that episodes like the Great Depression had been confined to the dust bins of history.
Paul Krugman began his blog on Sept 18, 2007. His fourth post, on Sept 20, was entitled "Is This the Wile E. Coyote Moment?".
He wrote, "The argument I and others have made is that the U.S. trade deficit is, fundamentally, not sustainable in the long run, which means that sooner or later the dollar has to decline a lot."
I was posting at my own blog on the Fed generated artificial boom and coming bust in 2005, discussing the below natural rate interest rates and the misdirection of capital into the housing bubble. I was discussing the phenomena before that, but my blog archives don't extend back beyond 2005.
I didn't say Krugman doesn't know any economics -- that is not incompatible with suggesting that in may ways he's a rather poor economist and in many significant ways he doesn't have a great understanding of the market.
Ronald Coase and Friedrich Hayek pointed out that mathematical economists often mistake their black board equations for the real world -- and take as "given facts" stuff that exists nowhere but in their own mathematical constructions. And that is just the beginnings of the false understanding of the market these economists carry in their heads -- resulting directly from the way they do economics.
Coase and Hayek are Nobel prize winners, and this is their well considered view of their science and many of its leading members. Something worth thinking about (Thinking hard is exactly what the AEA committee on graduate education said the profession discouraged its "rocket scientists" from doing.)
I might also recommend Ed Leamer on Paul Krugman's freshman error:
http://economy.nationaljournal.com/2008/12/is-the-deficit-a-threat-to-a-f.php#1183590
Well, Greg? Don't be shy. Be brave! Tell us: Is Fama right? Does the NIPA savings-investment identity guarantee that the stimulus cannot work because of 100% crowding out? Or has he made an elementary, freshman mistake?
Brad- Have we not already been pursuing a stimulus for the past 8 years of deficit spending? It apparently hasn't work because it only created temporary growth. How would you even be able to tell if it did? (It seems much easier to determine if it didn't.) All of the scenarios seem much more complex when we consider from where we are borrowing the stimulus cash. If the cash comes from China, and their currency is pegged to the dollar.... If China and our other friends won't buy all of the debt, and the Fed is forced to "buy" it by inflating the money supply...
For the record, DeLong is a very smart economist, and DeLong's remarks concern not the politics but the science of economics. So you're treading in stormy waters trying to argue with him about something that pertains to the science of economics.
By definition government spending is a part of the GDP function, therefore any increases in government spending customarily increase growth. That err in basic economic logic alone makes me consider not responding any further to your post. But your view is a common one. It's also a mistaken one, and it needs correction.
It doesn't matter if the money from all the spending is "coming from China" (last time I checked Japan actually holds more U.S. debt, for the record) because whether it comes from the U.S. or China or even Uganda, it has to get paid back eventually. To whom is not important.
What matters is that added spending boosts the economy right now when we need it. And so long as the multiplier is good, America can get bang for the buck. Not all spending is equal, i.e. the marginal dollar spent now is more important than the marginal dollar spent when times are good again. So government should spend now, and stop spending later.
"smart" in economics simply means = is good at math & does a lot of data work
Macroeconomics like physics and chemistry is an apparently linear science with linear patterns composing 98 percent of the easily observable entity. Necessary, periodic, and predictable nonlinearity is nevertheless part of these disciplines that occur at the small scale level with high frequency periodicity and at the large scale with substantially less than 1 percent of the total time dimension.
circa 2005:
http://weblog.ecommunics.org/gary.lammert/
Excellent article. I made similar comments in posts to my blog and elsewhere. The level of the debate is reflecting what I call backward looking Viagra economics: make it bigger, multipliers, bigger bang for your buck, all discussing economics of 80 years ago as you said. Sometimes the debate is being personalized in a quite childish style: you said, no I said, she said, mummy who said it first? Keynes of course, no he did not say that...so on so forth. As economists we have nothing better to do and to teach apparently....
Glad to finally learn my Dean has been paying me substantially less than my true salary for almost three years now! I mean, learning it earlier would have been better, but better late than never. I wonder if I will get all the interests paid, on top of the arrears ...
You would not mind - would you? - sending me copies of the documents you certainly have, proving that my salary (and David's) are "well in excess of $500,000"? I read the article you linked under those carefully worded words, but there is nothing there, just fluff and gossips ... With the help of your evidence, you see, I can walk over to my Dean's office and ask for the money he owes me, apparently!
I would not expect a careful historian such as you, Greg, to make public statements of this kind without first verifying the data and being able to provide supporting evidence, would I? I will be checking the mail anxiously in the near future. It's a lot of money they owe me, and with this crisis every penny does count!
Cheers, MB
P.S. While not "affiliated" with the Cato Institute, both David and I did sign their ad against the stimulus plan. I would be happy to come to your department for that debate, in case you still feel like organizing it. I may not be as distinguished a "macro-economist" as the one you had invited but, to partially compensate, I do not read Greg's blog. Among other things because I have two of mine to take care of ... Looking forward, twice, then. Again, best wishes. MB
to an approximation:
Economics is to the economy as physics is to baseball.
I agree with much of what is said in this article. Part of the reason this has occurred is that there is now greater specialization in economics, but the media and public at large expect economists to pontificate on all issues economics.
The problem I have with the article is the monolithic group that economists are lumped into. First, undoubtedly many were wrong, including conventional wisdom. Second, and most importantly, there were many who saw this coming.
Here is a short non-exclusive list: RAGHURAN RAJAN, NOURIEL ROUBINI, PAUL KRUGMAN, and blogger CALCULATED RISK.
So, lets give credit where credit is due there were some serious economists who predicted this crisis, or predicted elements of this crisis. I think that the author should be a little more careful in spreading generalizations, when some important thinkers were pretty close to correct.
Here are other articles with more folks who were correct on various elements of the crisis. Link. Link. Link (this article is partly false because although the ratings agencies played a big part in causing the crisis, Fannie and Freddie although a big part of the collateral damage were not a big cause of the problem).
*Please note I have links on all the names as evidence of their predictions, but they did not show up here. To see please go to http://econowonk.blogspot.com/2009/02/economics-professsion-great-piece.html
I apologize to Michele Boldrin for overstating his salary. I am not sure what his damages from this are, however. If I had stated he was as handsome as Brad Pitt, and as strong Arnold Schwarzenegger, what would his complaint have been!?
I do not think this vitiates the larger point that economists have been extraordinarily well treated by universities in recent years relative to the social value of their knowledge.
I appreciate his offer to debate the stimulus package. Perhaps we can arrange a time and place for such a smackdown with Brad de Long on the other side.
Greg,
I definitively agree that a debate has to exist about the state of economics, so I agree with what seems one of the objectives of your post. I agree less with the specifics.
I agree with:
1. there is too little research and knowledge of economic history by economics Ph.D.;
2. there is a lot of (economically) trivial but (matehmatically) tough work;
3. there is no clear association between social value of academic economists and wages, BUT do we have a better way of measuring that social value? I am pretty sure you yourself have use that measure of value (wages) in plenty of your papers; say, when equating wages to marginal product (for example, in your FTA you state in page 379: "this is because in a competitive economy the amount paid to each input equals the amount the last unit used adds to output"; still it might be interesting to do research in the determinants of academic economist's wages and how related they are to social value (though I am not sure you would put the topic in the "bizarre variety of rococo acadamic elaborations").
I agree less with how to assess the right amount, and right type of mathematics needed. I remember a senior and wise colleague being asked (casually, by a Hayekian) if there is not too much trashy mathematics in the profession. He answered that it is well known that a student needs as much mathematics as needed to understand HIS papers. It is very difficult to assess how much mathematics is needed, in the same sense that it is difficult to determine beforehand how much resources (and research) are needed to discover a new product. I still have my preferences (say, less complex mathematics and more economic history) but I think it is difficult to make an argument due to the uncertainty of the process.
Finally, I find a little bit of an inconsistency in your assessment of the profession and your own research. In chapter 11 of your book (say, the theoretical chapter) you referenced many economists that work with models: Lucas, Becker, Jones, Greif, Kremer, Galor, Weil, Acemoglu. These are the guys who are leading economic growth research. Some of the things they do are mathematically simple; some are a little bit tougher. I understand that you are referencing them somewhat approvingly (of their research). Or should I understand that you are putting them in the sack of "useless economists getting higher wages than their social contribution"?
You may answer that you are not referring to these guys, that you are thinking of macroeconomists (say, business cycle guys or new keynesians); but I would retort that it is difficult to judge researchers by outsiders of their field of expertise. In any case the problem seems to be of specialization. You may accuse them of earning too much; they may accuse you of not being broad enough to do research in short term macroeconomics.
The point is that I am in this with Solow when he says that you are biting the hand that gives you food.
Summarizing, there may be imbalances in the use of resources in the profession, yes. There was a misperception of the general public (and of some excellent academic economists) with respect to the knowledge of economists, yes. Is there anything deeply wrong with the profession? It is possible. What is it and how to tackle it? I am not sure. I am working on it.
This was all covered by the AEA committee on graduate education in the 1990s. David Colander has written a lot on the same topic.
You write:
"I agree with:
1. there is too little research and knowledge of economic history by economics Ph.D.;
2. there is a lot of (economically) trivial but (matehmatically) tough work;"
1) Michele Boldrin is as handsome as Brad Pitt, and as strong Arnold Schwarzenegger.
2) Those of us who signed the Cato ad are not "affiliated" with Cato (at least I'm not). They asked me to sign the ad, I read, agreed with it, so I signed.
A very interesting debate, especially in the comments. Thanks to all for your insights.
My own thoughts: economics is not suffering from an excess of mathematics - if anything, maybe a shortage! But it could definitely use some better modelling and data.
Why do I think this? And do I secretly hope that economics is in a crisis? Answers at http://www.knowingandmaking.com/2009/02/reshaping-economics.html
In addition, Jim Manzi's article (linked in the right-hand column) has some really good things to say about falsifiability.
if we apply clark's argument anywhere else, we get the same results: ridicule all political science professors for not predicting 9/11, castigate all religion scholars for not predicting the rise of fundamentalism, crucify all art critics for not predicting the next aesthetic trend, humiliate public health scholars for not predicting any of the epidemics that have occurred, etc., etc.... make fun of anybody who engages in the difficult task of using their intellect to say anything remotely insightful about anything. who are you, gregory clark, the rush limbaugh of academia?
scholarship doesn't equal omniscience, research doesn't result in clairvoyance. sorry that this is news, and that it has to be so disappointing.