The authors track a detailed history of Democratic economics through the blissful Clinton years to the formation of a new economic theory, hardened in the cauldron of the financial crisis. Here's their argument in a nugget:
Obama has set out to synthesize the New Democratic faith in the utility of markets with the Old Democratic emphasis on reducing inequality. In Obama's state, government never supplants the market or stifles its inner workings--the old forms of statism that didn't wash economically, and certainly not politically. But government does aggressively prod markets--by planting incentives, by stirring new competition--to achieve the results he prefers.The authors trace this softer capitalism approach back to behavioral economics, the cozy nook of the dismal science that manipulates incentives to guide flawed human instincts. Obama, they say, doesn't want to proclaim his policies over a rapt body politic. He wants to tweak incentives to nudge Americans -- bankers, home owners, patients -- toward his policy goals. Four big examples:
--Banks: Obama could nationalize the banks; instead he tinkers with incentives to get private investors to buy the toxic assets themselves.
--Mortgages: Obama could have the feds rewrite troubled mortgages; instead he "gives lenders financial incentives to lower monthly payments for borrowers at risk of default."
--Health care: Obama could push for a single-payer health system; instead, he's beginning by trying to kill insurers' disincentives to provide preventative care.
--Environment: Obama could simply tax carbon outright; instead he's proposed a cap-and-trade system that encourages companies to pay each other for the right to pollute more and prices the negative externality of carbon dioxide to encourage consumers to seek cleaner sources of energy.
To be sure, these nudges are political as much as ideological. Nationalizing the banks and health care in your first year in office is an "all-in" bet wrapped in a headache. But still, I think the authors get as close as anybody has to diagnosing the central animating philosophy behind Obama's economics: "a hands-off approach to markets themselves, but a hands-on approach to the incentives and defaults that influence decisions."
I think the very best example of this philosophy is something a bit under the radar: wage-loss insurance. Workers aren't spending enough time in productivity training at their jobs, Obama thinks, because they're worried about spending money to get better at a job they might not keep. But what if workers knew that the government would cushion their job loss with some extra dough? They would want to spend more time in productivity training.
What emerges is an economic policy with unabashedly liberal goals that respects individual freedom. I'm sorry, but I just couldn't help thinking of this:
Take a look at all the policies described above. Obama's agenda lays out it goals clearly, but it also gives us space, because it wants us to choose its agenda. It wants private investors to choose to buy the toxic assets. It wants private insurers to choose prevenative care. Obama doesn't want to do the dishes. He wants us to want to do the dishes. Socialism is considered paternalistic -- it should feel like a father. Obama's America looks more like a long-term relationship -- part-independent, part-dependent. And maybe just right.










The environment piece of this argument doesn't make any sense. Taxing carbon directly is the "incentive" approach to reducing CO2 emissions, not cap-and-trade. The whole point of the latter is to set a maximum amount of emissions - i.e. telling the economy what to do not just making consumers and producers want to do it. Obama's choice of cap-and-trade over a carbon tax suggests precisely the opposite philosophy from the one you're attributing to him.
I've thought about this and I think you're definitely right that the cap-and-trade example is probably the weakest of the five, but I don't think it suggests the exact opposite philosophy. As people as diverse as Robert Samuelson and Matt Yglesias have pointed out, there's functionally little difference between taxing carbon and cap-and-trade. The main difference is aesthetic: cap-and-trade doesn't announce itself as a tax on energy. It's just more indirect because, among other things, it doesn't have the word "tax" in it, so consumers might not necessarily think of it as a direct tax on their energy consumption even though it will still raise the cost of purchasing "unclean" energy. That feels "nudging" to me. And from the companies' perspective, cap-and-trade can be seen as more of a "nudge" than an order, because it allows companies to buy and sell each other carbon allowances, which at least creates a market for carbon that wouldn't otherwise exist. So yeah, you're right. It's the weakest example, and the most aesthetic. But I don't think it's fatal to the argument. But I'm interested to hear what you think about htat...
There's a couple distinct issues there:
1. If you plan to set the tax as high as necessary to reduce emissions to a certain level, then it obviously functions similarly to a cap-and-trade system. But that's not inherent to a carbon tax, it's just that Obama is committed to a hard cap on the amount of CO2 emissions. So while the two approaches are largely equivalent as Obama might use them, a true "nudging" approach would be to price in the cost of carbon emissions in the form of a tax, and then let energy consumers emit as much as justified given that cost. That use of a carbon tax is very different from cap-and-trade, and much more consistent with Obama's supposed philosphy.
2. When you suggest that cap-and-trade is nudging, what alternative are you comparing it to? It obviously looks like nudging when compared to the EPA setting an allowable emission standard for each industry or process or what have you, but that's not the actual alternative anyone's offering. Looks to me like Obama chose the least nudging of the conceivable approaches. So it's really not a weak argument, it's a counter-argument.
3. But no, its not fatal. The preference for cap-and-trade is best explained by political practicality, not by Obama being pro-control and anti-nudging. That said, what I see on TNR's list is a 3-1 nudging-control ratio, but a 4-0 good politics ratio (I don't know enough about wage-loss insurance, but at first glance that looks more popular than mandated productivity training as well). I guess my question is, what makes you think "economic philosophy" is a better explanation for Obama's behavior than a political calculus? Or to put it another way, why is any additional explanation needed in light of the political calculus?
Another caveat: drug policy. To use the language of the New Republic piece, a nudge approach would "steer" drug policy by legalizing narcotics and taxing their consumption. (We "row"--or try to--by criminalizing drugs.) To use your language, Derek, your dad forbids you from toking up. Your boyfriend, on the other hand, passes you the joint.
(As a point of reference, here's the president poking fun at the idea of decriminalizing and taxing marijuana: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDDBqNhx2rA)
I think its a little harsh to criticize the president for his drug policy at this point. Yeah, the town hall moment was snide, but he also isn't wrong. Whatever revenue that could be generated by legalizing and taxing marijuana isn't going to magically regrow our economy.
Plus, he's given a free pass to states that want to allow marijuana dispensaries. Give credit where credit is due. To stretch the metaphor even further, it's like your dad handing you a joint, but saying don't tell mom where you got it.
Obama's "drug czar", Gil Kerlikowske , has a record of "harm reduction" efforts.
The nudge philosophy should also look within the current context that it is in.
A broad sweeping change to drug policy would not be a nudge. Letting california do its own thing unharassed would.
unless you definitely want to be appreciated only by US-readers please keep in mind that Hulu cannot be viewed outside the US. Therefore could you please give information on what you are posting so that one is able to look for it at Youtube et al - in my experience most of the time it is easily available there
thank you!
Am I wrong in thinking that this is in essence a pragmatic update of the economic theories that justified the replacement of a confederation with a republic back in the late 1780s? Nationalizing the executive functions of government effectively lowered the risks associated with business development (nudging people towards business development), currency was suddenly more stable. Internal improvements nudged business people to trade their goods to a broader market. Tarrifs further nudged people towards domestic manufacturing. etc...
The specific issues in the article, and the appropriate comments above, seem to me to speak to what types of actions need nudging given where we are as a society and economy. I have no idea what specific things need to be done, but I'm encouraged that we are at least talking about the right things, whatever the specific solutions end up being. In my opinion a huge reason we are in the economic position we are in is because we have been governed by people who live in economic theory land, pretending they are little heroic John Galts.
It's nice that we seem to have landed back on the ground.