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Apr 23 2009, 12:09 pm

What is Obama's Grand Economic Theory?

That's a question that's buggered a lot of economists recently. He's either a socialist revolutionary or a Wall Street poodle depending on whom you read. But this excellent piece from the New Republic is the best I've read explaining why he's neither -- why we're about to embark on four years of an economic policy that is unlike any other this country has ever seen, and why he could introduce a new American paradigm: boyfriend-economics.

The authors track a detailed history of Democratic economics through the blissful Clinton years to the formation of a new economic theory, hardened in the cauldron of the financial crisis. Here's their argument in a nugget:

Obama has set out to synthesize the New Democratic faith in the utility of markets with the Old Democratic emphasis on reducing inequality. In Obama's state, government never supplants the market or stifles its inner workings--the old forms of statism that didn't wash economically, and certainly not politically. But government does aggressively prod markets--by planting incentives, by stirring new competition--to achieve the results he prefers.
The authors trace this softer capitalism approach back to behavioral economics, the cozy nook of the dismal science that manipulates incentives to guide flawed human instincts. Obama, they say, doesn't want to proclaim his policies over a rapt body politic. He wants to tweak incentives to nudge Americans -- bankers, home owners, patients -- toward his policy goals. Four big examples:

--Banks: Obama could nationalize the banks; instead he tinkers with incentives to get private investors to buy the toxic assets themselves.

--Mortgages: Obama could have the feds rewrite troubled mortgages; instead he "gives lenders financial incentives to lower monthly payments for borrowers at risk of default."

--Health care: Obama could push for a single-payer health system; instead, he's beginning by trying to kill insurers' disincentives to provide preventative care.

--Environment: Obama could simply tax carbon outright; instead he's proposed a cap-and-trade system that encourages companies to pay each other for the right to pollute more and prices the negative externality of carbon dioxide to encourage consumers to seek cleaner sources of energy.

To be sure, these nudges are political as much as ideological. Nationalizing the banks and health care in your first year in office is an "all-in" bet wrapped in a headache. But still, I think the authors get as close as anybody has to diagnosing the central animating philosophy behind Obama's economics: "a hands-off approach to markets themselves, but a hands-on approach to the incentives and defaults that influence decisions."

I think the very best example of this philosophy is something a bit under the radar: wage-loss insurance. Workers aren't spending enough time in productivity training at their jobs, Obama thinks, because they're worried about spending money to get better at a job they might not keep. But what if workers knew that the government would cushion their job loss with some extra dough? They would want to spend more time in productivity training.

What emerges is an economic policy with unabashedly liberal goals that respects individual freedom. I'm sorry, but I just couldn't help thinking of this:



Take a look at all the policies described above. Obama's agenda lays out it goals clearly, but it also gives us space, because it wants us to choose its agenda. It wants private investors to choose to buy the toxic assets. It wants private insurers to choose prevenative care. Obama doesn't want to do the dishes. He wants us to want to do the dishes. Socialism is considered paternalistic -- it should feel like a father. Obama's America looks more like a long-term relationship -- part-independent, part-dependent. And maybe just right.

Comments (9)

Enrique Fabuloso

The environment piece of this argument doesn't make any sense. Taxing carbon directly is the "incentive" approach to reducing CO2 emissions, not cap-and-trade. The whole point of the latter is to set a maximum amount of emissions - i.e. telling the economy what to do not just making consumers and producers want to do it. Obama's choice of cap-and-trade over a carbon tax suggests precisely the opposite philosophy from the one you're attributing to him.

Peter K Jackson

Another caveat: drug policy. To use the language of the New Republic piece, a nudge approach would "steer" drug policy by legalizing narcotics and taxing their consumption. (We "row"--or try to--by criminalizing drugs.) To use your language, Derek, your dad forbids you from toking up. Your boyfriend, on the other hand, passes you the joint.

(As a point of reference, here's the president poking fun at the idea of decriminalizing and taxing marijuana: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDDBqNhx2rA)

Jordan (Replying to: Peter K Jackson)

I think its a little harsh to criticize the president for his drug policy at this point. Yeah, the town hall moment was snide, but he also isn't wrong. Whatever revenue that could be generated by legalizing and taxing marijuana isn't going to magically regrow our economy.

Plus, he's given a free pass to states that want to allow marijuana dispensaries. Give credit where credit is due. To stretch the metaphor even further, it's like your dad handing you a joint, but saying don't tell mom where you got it.

Obama's "drug czar", Gil Kerlikowske , has a record of "harm reduction" efforts.

Terra Caines (Replying to: Peter K Jackson)

The nudge philosophy should also look within the current context that it is in.

A broad sweeping change to drug policy would not be a nudge. Letting california do its own thing unharassed would.

unless you definitely want to be appreciated only by US-readers please keep in mind that Hulu cannot be viewed outside the US. Therefore could you please give information on what you are posting so that one is able to look for it at Youtube et al - in my experience most of the time it is easily available there
thank you!

Kevin Jefferies

Am I wrong in thinking that this is in essence a pragmatic update of the economic theories that justified the replacement of a confederation with a republic back in the late 1780s? Nationalizing the executive functions of government effectively lowered the risks associated with business development (nudging people towards business development), currency was suddenly more stable. Internal improvements nudged business people to trade their goods to a broader market. Tarrifs further nudged people towards domestic manufacturing. etc...

The specific issues in the article, and the appropriate comments above, seem to me to speak to what types of actions need nudging given where we are as a society and economy. I have no idea what specific things need to be done, but I'm encouraged that we are at least talking about the right things, whatever the specific solutions end up being. In my opinion a huge reason we are in the economic position we are in is because we have been governed by people who live in economic theory land, pretending they are little heroic John Galts.

It's nice that we seem to have landed back on the ground.