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May 19 2009, 1:00 pm

A Few Words About Inflation

A lot of folks out there seem to be pretty worried about inflation, despite the fact that price levels have been flat for months and there's considerably slack in the economy. Some even manage to worry about hyperinflation, that is, extremely rapid and uncontrolled increase in the price level. This strikes me as extremely wrongheaded. It fails to place the current American debt-load in any kind of historical context, and more importantly, it posits a world where the Fed wouldn't respond to several years of double-digit annual inflation by raising interest rates. That's just not the world we live in.

And yet, people worry. Today, for instance, Hendy Blodget warns us to "Brace for Hyperinflation," and he cites a John Hussman report as evidence -- a report that looks to me like a great deal of hooey. Here's an example of what I mean:

This policy can only have one of two effects: either it will crowd out over $1 trillion of gross domestic investment that would otherwise have occurred if the appropriate losses had been wiped off the ledger (instead of making bank bondholders whole), or it will result in a stunning and durable increase in the quantity of base money, which will ultimately be accompanied not by a year or two of 5-6% inflation, but most probably by a near-doubling of the U.S. price level over the next decade.
Scary red bolding entirely Hussman's. A near-doubling of the U.S. price level over the next decade is consistent not with 5% or 6% inflation, but with...7% annual inflation. To put the hyperinflation issue in context, Weimar Germany had a monthly rate of inflation of about 3,000,000% in 1923, and as of last November, Zimbabwe had an estimated monthly inflation rate of 13,000,000,000%. At these rates, prices double multiple times per day. An America with rates even close to these levels is one in which the nation's political institutions have all completely collapsed.

Comments (1)

The probability of hyperinflation in the USA is nearly nonexistent. It should be mentioned that the word hyperinflation only occurred in the title, not the article and that the author of an article typically does not define the title under which his article runs.

USA inflation for the years from 1998 through 2007 was less than 3% per year (around 2.6%/year according to the web site I looked at). An inflation rate of 7% for 10 years is a big, big deal and way different from a blip for a year or two at 5 or 6% and then returning to an inflation rate less than 3% for the next 8 years. Blodget's point was that there is a big difference between a short term upward blip in the inflation and permanent resetting of the inflation rate from less than 3% to 7%. 70/2.6 = about a 27 year period to double the price levels. 70/7 = about a 10 year period to double the price levels. Long term, there is a huge difference between an inflation rate of 2.6% and an inflation rate of 7%.

There are other important implications of the inflation rate more than doubling long term. For example, there is already a serious effort by the Chinese to have the dollar no longer be the reserve currency. It might be interesting to discuss the implications of this.

I lived through the Jimmy Carter years when inflation was a huge problem. If you are not worried about inflation, could you explain why?