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May 25 2009, 2:37 pm
Deal With the Environment Now, And Social Security Later?
Paul Krugman says Robert Samuelson is a hypocrite because Samuelson is tediously, incessantly worried today about the long-run solvency of the social security trust fund, but isn't so worried about the long-run destruction of the planet via climate change. I have the feeling Samuelson wouldn't agree that the two situations are analagous, but let's assume Krugman is right on the merits: You can't play Cassandra with social security and Zeno with climate change. So, if we have an obligation to be consistent about social security and climate change -- if they are analagous long-run problems -- why can't someone just toss the hypocrisy charge right back at Krugman?
Krugman, after all, thinks climate change is a problem we should deal with today. (And I agree with him.) But he doesn't think social security is urgent. Why the difference?
Krugman, after all, thinks climate change is a problem we should deal with today. (And I agree with him.) But he doesn't think social security is urgent. Why the difference?










Because we can ignore the long-term problem with Social Security literally for decades with no current ill-effects, and then we can do the long term fix for Social Security with not-terribly-painful legislation that takes one hour to enact; whereas every year that everyone does nothing about global warming the problem gets worse, and even assuming you started today, the long-term fix is fantastically difficult, complicated and expensive, and each decade you put off starting to deal with it the solution becomes yet harder.
The two situations are not analogous. Running out of money for social security is a mathematical certainty.
Climate change is much less predictable. Just the change in terminology from global warming to climate change lets you know that the global warming fanatics are not that sure of their case. There are several orders of magnitude difference in the predictability of global warming (especially man's role in global warming) versus social security solvency.
One thing that is sure is that Krugman is a very erratic guy.
Mathematical certainty. Hmm. I thought it depended on other stuff too like economics and probability, the effects of unpredicatble behavior from things like raising taxes, lifting the SS payment cap. Actuarial thought must come in here somewhere. So it's more like E = mc2 huh? I was under the impression that predicting financial stuff out 40-50 years was unpredictable at best. Its nice to know its as simple as 2 + 2 = 4.
As for us Global warming fanatics. Well, I guess I don't have to guess your take. All just a big hoax.
As a global warming fanatic I think Krugman is quite consistent.
There is no certainty to the outcome of global. Pick your model, any model, and bet your child's life that it will be correct in 20 years.
Global warming is not analogous to social security, there is much more uncertainty to the outcome (even in the scientific community), then there is for social security.
1. Krugman is a hypocrite--I'm eagerly awaiting the economist who can explain why obviously brilliant economists lose their heads and start saying insane, illogical things once they become famous (cf. Krugman, Sachs, Stiglitz)
2. If there is a logical way of dealing with this it is to ignore climate change and deal with social security. Why? Because climate change is susceptible to being fixed by future innovation (see the many articles this past month about geo-engineering, possible breakthroughs in cellulosic ethanol, etc.) An economy saddled by crippling taxes and impoverished seniors is far less likely to generate such innovations. It's hard to see what innovations might fix the social security problem (free nanobot health care? a way to break the free lunch rule?) particularly in an economy slowed and constrained by lots of climate-related regulations.
Tim, you must have pretty impressive intellectual credentials to be able expose Nobel Laureates as insane and illogical. You must be both a psychiatrist as well as heavy-hitter economist. Its probably a good thing that you have kept your genius under wraps from the Nobel Prize committee or you might start saying insane illogical things too. Thank goodness.
The Nobel Prize committee picks the likes of Yasah Arrafat for peace prises. Not exactly a solid gold standard. I'll stand with Tim.
The Peace prize and the Economics prize are not awarded by the same people. Different committees. Different countries.
Apart from that, other laureates in various disciplines include Milton Friedman, Henry Kissinger, Mother Theresa and Winston Churchill. All highly suspect according to your reasoning.
And it's Yasser, not Yasah.
Both are wrong. The problem with Social Security is not distant. The baby boom started in 1946, and 65 years later, in 2011, increasing numbers will retire and go on Social Security and Medicare. They will cost more starting *in that year*, not some distant decade. And the government will have to come up with that money starting in 2011, not 2041.
The number of retirees will continue to rise as a percentage of the population for decades, putting more and more strain on the finances of the Federal government. That's why the programs go negative in 2017 or 2019 (various estimates out there.) It only takes that few years from 2011 to then to eat up the entire Social Security surplus that now goes to fund general government.
On the environment, Paul Krugman and other greens would walk right by some kid starving in the third world, saying "No, I need to spend this money to prevent your great-great-great-granddaughter from possibly having to deal with higher sea levels. Sorry about your sanitation, education and food problem, kiddo, but I'm saving the world! And don't even think about industrializing, either!"
The smart thing to do is do what Reagan and Greenspan did in 1981 when SS was close to insolvency: raise SS withholding on wages. Problem solved. Reagan was quite an advocate for Social Security which is a little known secret. Check here for Reagans statement to congress re: saving Social Security:
http://www.ssa.gov/history/reaganstmts.html#letter2.
We could raise SS withholding tax by 2% and the problem is solved for another 50 years or so. And it's a tax hike on wages
I think you're hypothetical on Krugman and starving children is an example of the lack on your part of either getting a decent education and/or a need for more and better religious training. This kind of stuff is on the level of Rush Limbaugh (sorry but true) or worse yet Glenn Beck or the absolute bottom of the barrel Michael Savage.
Social Security and Medicare need to pay for something like an additional 800,000 people per year retiring for each of the next 20 years. That's above the normal number of retirees. The percentage of the population that is retired will steadily increase until "the bulge passes through the snake", and boomers start to die. It's that shift in ratio between working and retired that makes the whole thing such a problem. A 2% increase in the tax isn't going to do it.
As for the environment, the idea is that we increase energy prices in the U.S. as they've done in Europe and have $8/gallon gas and expensive electricity. That forces everyone into small cars, and makes alternative energy financially viable. Although the alternatives are so far out of the money now that we'll also have to forbid construction of conventional plants and subsidize the green stuff.
When U.S. and Europe are both driving Smart cars everywhere, taking trains and powering things with windmills, then we have to do something about the third world. The idea of restricting carbon output for the entire world means it's a zero sum game. They can't grow their output unless we shrink ours.
People hope that advanced technologies come along that will make green energy reasonably cheap, but if that doesn't happen, the only thing to do to stop China and others from emitting CO2 (since they have all the industry that will have fled the West), is to impose carbon-based tariffs. China is already the number two source of CO2, and headed quickly for number one. We think we can impose tariffs because they sell us so much stuff, and can't do without our markets.
So while it's true that Krugman would not tell a starving child to piss off, that's the effect of the green agenda. The third world can't industrialize without taking CO2 output from the rich world, not if the total world output is to remain constant. Put another way, they can't build a factory unless we close one. They can't drive a car unless an American gives up his. In that competition for carbon permits, we will win and they will lose.
What's more, the expense of doing all this makes it that much harder to find money to give them to improve their lives. Of course, aid has been so poorly spent so far that it probably won't be much of a loss. But unless they can build factories and sell to us the way Asia has done, there's not an obvious path to improved standards of living.
Of course, all this changes if the technology improves to the point that it's better than conventional, CO2 emitting sources. But if you had that technology, you wouldn't need the CO2 permits and controls. I seriously doubt the research is going to go any faster because we've made the country poorer.
Hate to be a shill for Krugman, but this is a facile post, you can do better than this, Conor. . .
Krugman has stated plainly that S/S needs fixing but he correctly says Medicare's crisis is more urgent and needs to be fixed much, much sooner, thus should be the priority - are you going to make the opposite case?
He also makes a shorthand case that fixing Social Security can be done with relatively small adjustments to taxation/benefit levels even if left undone in several years, if you want to attach that position - attack the numbers, or better, attack the political feasibility.
On the other hand, Krugman agrees with the mainstream view that climate change requires immediate action because we're already far over the limit, the scale of action required is greater and the potential consequences are much greater. You can attack that point of view if you wish, but equating it with Social Security is silly unless you hold specific views that are contrary - in which case you'd disagree with him no matter what he said.
There is internally inconsistent about holding these positions. You can attack them individually or all of them on their merits, but there's no basis for bundling them.
To be fair to Conor, Krugman is the one who bundled the issues, Conor was just responding.
It also seems reasonable to me that a young person like Conor would be more concerned about Social Security solvency than an older guy like Krugman. If part of the fix to Social Security is to reduce benefits, why not start now? What is the benefit in waiting (which discriminates for the old at the expense of the young).
Conor is a liberal. Anytime he is open minded enough to take on a liberal icon like Krugman, you have to admire his cojones.
Lastly, I'm glad to see Conor man up and bitch slap Krugman. Krugman was really rude to Conor a while back and deserved the take down.
I admire the civilized and intelligent tone of your post.