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	<id>tag:business.theatlantic.com,2009://3/tag:business.theatlantic.com,2009://3.19827-</id>
	<updated>2009-11-03T19:58:08Z</updated>
	<title>Comments for Another Casualty of the House Bubble: Labor Mobility</title>
	
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		<id>tag:business.theatlantic.com,2009://3.19827</id>
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		<link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://business.theatlantic.com/mt-42/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=3/entry_id=19827" title="Another Casualty of the House Bubble: Labor Mobility" />
		<published>2009-06-22T13:34:29Z</published>
		<updated>2009-06-22T14:21:48Z</updated>
		<title>Another Casualty of the House Bubble: Labor Mobility</title>
		<summary><![CDATA[It's customary to deride mainstream media outlets as simply "reprinting press releases" from their favorite interest groups.&nbsp; Well, color me guilty today, because this, from Ball State's Center for Business and Economic Research, is pretty interesting:Many Americans are mired in...]]></summary>
		<author>
			<name>Megan McArdle</name>
			
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			<![CDATA[It's customary to deride mainstream media outlets as simply "reprinting press releases" from their favorite interest groups.&nbsp; Well, color me guilty today, because this, from Ball State's Center for Business and Economic Research, is pretty interesting:<br /><br /><blockquote>Many Americans are mired in a housing gridlock: They can't afford to sell their homes because property values have fallen, causing millions of people to owe more on their homes than they are worth. And, many can't move to take new jobs until they sell their homes.</blockquote>]]>
			<![CDATA[<br /><blockquote>Michael Hicks, director of Ball State University's
Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER), has found the
migration of people from one part of the country has nearly ground to a
halt. He analyzed data from a variety of sources, including United Van
Lines (UVL) migration numbers. <br />&nbsp;<br />Fewer Americans are moving now than in any year since 1962, when the population was 120 million smaller. <br />&nbsp;<br />"The
economy is playing havoc, since property values have dropped
significantly in the last few years," Hicks said. "Many people simply
cannot just pick up and move. They have a home they have to sell
first.&nbsp; <br />&nbsp;<br />"It many cases, one spouse moves to another state to
work while the other stays home in their main residence in an attempt
to sell it. With the current market, homes are selling at thousands
less than what people paid for them a few years ago. Some people may
just be stuck for a while until the economy improves and homes begin to
sell again."<br />&nbsp;<br />Since 1977, UVL has tracked where the firm takes
its customers in the 48 contiguous states. UVL says Michigan is the No.
1 outbound traffic state for 2008. Nearly 67.1 percent of all
Michigan-related United Van Lines traffic was leaving the state.
Despite large job losses in the manufacturing sectors, Indiana actually
gained population in 2008.<br /></blockquote>One of the justly
celebrated strengths of the United States economy is its labor
mobility.&nbsp; By this account, at least, our housing market has basically
destroyed that critical asset.<br /><br />A recession like this is the
worst time to lose your labor mobility.&nbsp; I am quite convinced by the
argument that since the 1980s, recessions have been characterized by <a href="http://www.ny.frb.org/research/current_issues/ci9-8.html">structural, rather than cyclical, unemployment</a>.&nbsp;
Rather than temporary layoffs of workers during periods of slack
demand, modern recession-driven unemployment tends to result from the
destruction of jobs, firms, even industries.&nbsp; That's why long-term
unemployment creeps up, and skilled workers are having a harder time
than they used to during downturns:&nbsp; it takes longer to match a skilled
worker with an appropriate position than to slot body into a
low-skilled place.<br /><br />In those conditions, workers need geographic
mobility to offer them a wider variety of potentially appropriate
jobs.&nbsp; But this time around, they're tied down by overpriced real
estate and underwater mortgages.<br /><br />The article suggests that
families may pick up the strain, with one spouse staying behind to sell
the house while the other spouse moves.&nbsp; But that's a very temporary,
and a very bad, fix--at best, that means trying to support two
households rather than one on family income.]]>
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		<id>tag:business.theatlantic.com,2009://3.19827-comment:213810</id>
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		<title>Comment from DylanE on 2009-06-22</title>
		<author>
				<name>DylanE</name>
				<uri></uri>
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				<![CDATA[<p>Hi Megan.  Do you have a link for the full study?  Based on what you quoted we can't really see how much of the slow-down in migration is from home owning families, let alone make any kind of causal statement.  Don't get me wrong. I think the hypothesis is very reasonable, but I'd like to see how migration compares over time between renters and owners.  I assume that renters will probably always have a higher migration level, but if the gap between the two groups has widened considerably during this recession that would give at least a start towards making a causal argument.</p>]]>
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		<published>2009-06-23T00:08:15Z</published>
	</entry>

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