How does this bill do that? It promises Medicare/Medicaid savings and forces almost all employers to cover their workers. But most importantly, it taxes the rich.
Wherever you fall on the ideological spectrum, this additional federal tax on the top one percent -- known as a surtax -- should not be terribly surprising, even if it is troubling. There are other options for paying for health care reform, but they all come with their particular political challenges. The argument for rationing has few friends in Congress facing 2010 reelections. We could repeal the tax break for employer-paid health insurance, but labor unions will scream bloody murder. We could reduce the charitable deduction rate, but that idea has already caused a stink. We could legislate all sorts of sin taxes on soda, and cigarettes, and calories, but those are the most regressive taxes in the bunch, and will likely face strong public opposition. We could also promise that a host of smart cost-saving innovations -- like electronic records and a national database of best practices to keep individual districts from falling back on expensive, unnecessary treatments -- but it's very hard to say exactly how much these programs would actually save, and we should probably do them anyway. So tactically, it's no surprise that the House bill comes with a hint of Robin Hood.
But of course, how much Robinhoodism is good for America is an issue that the Senate -- and the country -- will certainly debate. The current surtax affects households earning more than $350K a year with a progressive rate that moves from 1 to 5.4 percent, and expects to bring in more than $500 billion over the next ten years. The debate over How High is Too High is underway, and I want to give a sampling of it before pulling away to read more about this legislation.
The Washington Post writes an editorial today calling the House's surtax excessive. The authors acknowledge that the rich bear an historically low burden: "the average rate paid by the top 1 percent of households shrank from 33 percent in 1986 to about 23 percent in 2006." But such a sudden jump in taxes for the rich could hurt productivity or encourage them to stash their money in tax shelters. They go on:
The deeper issue, though, is whether it is wise to pay for a far-reaching new federal social program by tapping a revenue source that would surely need to be tapped if and when Congress and the Obama administration get serious about the long-term federal deficit.To echo Conor: That makes no sense. Raising taxes on the rich goes precisely to the deeper issue of the deficit. Fred Hiatt, the editor of the very page on which the Post article ran, just said so himself! So what the Post must object to, I suppose, is the size of the tax increase, and not the principle.
Instead of a surtax, the editorial suggests that Congress end the tax break for employer-provided health benefits. I agree. So do lots of people. But ending that $250 billion transfer entirely will be politically impossible. A more realistic cap -- like Steven Pearlstein recommends -- might only net something in the tens rather than hundreds of billions over the next decade. But of course, as long as we're talking about realistic, it's important to note that the surtax proposed in House bill could be just as politically impossible to swallow, at least in the Senate. After all, Robin Hood and the law never did get along.










Indeed. Raising taxes on the rich for this ensures that it will be impossible to close the deficit even down to GWB's average level by raising taxes only on the rich. Literally impossible, as in would require over 100% marginal tax rates. Even with the tax cuts expiring and the top rate going back to 39.4%, the deficits in 2013-2019 are expected to be in the $700B to $1T range, generally increasing. That's if the President's budget, which includes the charitable deduction limit and other ideas rejected by Congress, is adopted.
Since it's actually impossible to close the deficit only with taxes on the rich, all it means by raising taxes on the rich for this is that either the deficit won't be reduced down to even GWB levels, or that middle class tax hikes will be necessary to do it.
I think you're right. There's no way to close the deficit if we consider 99 percent of the country entirely off limits. Sounds like you belong here:
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/09/more-members-of-club-wagner/
Ah, but I oppose this health care bill here because we can't afford it and it's making things worse. If we were paying for it by eliminating the $10-30B per year in agricultural subsidies, then I'd be amenable. I'm not sure that the club members share my opinion on this. (I perhaps come closest to Sen. Gregg, of those listed there.)
I agree that, absent any other action, taxes must rise. That's simply facing reality, something that Candidate and President Obama, like most politicians, has refused to do. However, I still prefer cutting spending, even dramatically. (Again, I freely admit that most politicians, like the American people themselves, want it all and refuse to admit trade offs.) Of course, cutting spending is politically infeasible, but then so is raising taxes.
The Club Wagner premise assumes that taxes must rise, and that taxes on the rich alone can't pay for it. Therefore, it seems to me that members of Club Wagner must admit that this bill does not merely raise taxes on the rich, but inevitably raises taxes on the middle class in the future. If we already can't afford to close the deficit by raising taxes on the rich, then this bill merely ensures higher middle class taxes rises in the future.