Atlantic Business Channel

« The Power of Prices | Main | Is US Manufacturing Growing? »

Nov 2 2009, 5:47 pm

Brookings Debunks Myths About U.S. Opportunity

In an article that appeared this weekend in the Washington Post, a few economics fellows of the Brookings Institution present five myths about U.S. opportunity. I found some of their conclusions pretty surprising -- not from an economics standpoint, but more because scholars from Brookings were making them. Their tone appears to be unusually conservative for a think tank that tends be characterized as left-leaning. The piece makes a lot of sense, and its recommendations are worth noting. Let's consider each myth.

Americans Have The Best Economic Opportunity

First, they explain that Americans born into a low-income class don't have the best prospects of opportunity in the world, noting some Nordic nations and the U.K. have the U.S. beat. This is the only problem that they don't really present any solution to, probably because they can't think of much the government can really do to help. After all, there are already numerous programs in place to assist low-income families. But some of their subsequent myths seem to speak to this issue, so let's move on for now.

Subsequent Generations Of Americans Do Better

This is an odd one and easily their least compelling argument. Here's their basis for the claim that this generation is doing worse than the last:

Today, men in their 30s earn 12 percent less than the previous generation did at the same age.

Why is that? Well, they blame more women in the workforce. But this is an odd criticism. In fact, what I think would be more interesting would be total household income for 30-somethings generation-over-generation. Clearly, women have taken some pay share from men as income equality has gotten better -- you can't pay men as much if you're paying women more. And that's okay, because this outcome is fair. So I'd only be alarmed if women's income hasn't increased by a percentage that makes up for the decline in men's salaries. The economists don't provide this precise figure, but do admit that households overall are doing better now. So this data point doesn't convince me that subsequent generations are doing worse.

Immigrant Workers And Offshoring Jobs Cause Poverty And Inequality

This is a really common myth. Here's their alternative explanation for why we have worse inequality these days:

Although immigration and trade are often blamed, a more important reason for our lack of progress against poverty and our growing inequality is a dramatic change in American family life. Almost 30 percent of children now live in single-parent families, up from 12 percent in 1968. Since poverty rates in single-parent households are roughly five times as high as in two-parent households, this shift has helped keep the poverty rate up; it climbed to 13.2 percent last year. If we had the same fraction of single-parent families today as we had in 1970, the child poverty rate would probably be about 30 percent lower than it is today.

Again, this is the Brookings Institution, not the Heritage Foundation. I applaud its brave stance on this one. It's utterly obvious that children are better off in a two-parent household from an economic standpoint -- two incomes are better than one. It's almost trivial. But the argument is not a very popular one to make these days. The authors go on to lament the fact that more than half of births occur out of wedlock.

More Money For Families Results In Better Opportunities For Children

Here's an interesting finding -- money doesn't matter as much as other factors:

Our research shows that if you want to avoid poverty and join the middle class in the United States, you need to complete high school (at a minimum), work full time and marry before you have children. If you do all three, your chances of being poor fall from 12 percent to 2 percent, and your chances of joining the middle class or above rise from 56 to 74 percent.

Again, marrying before you have children? What is this, the 1950s? The economists throw cold, hard facts in the face of what appears to be a new social paradigm. Old-fashioned personal responsibility and hard work result in only a 2% chance of being poor. Astounding! They go on to champion the 1996 welfare reform law, which they say "dramatically increased employment and lowered overall child poverty."

It's Important To Cut Waste And Abuse In The Federal Budget

Here's another important one. If you want to cut spending substantially then forget waste and abuse -- you'd better attack entitlements. They say:

Medicare, Social Security and Medicaid - along with interest on the debt threaten to crowd out all other spending in a few decades.

The only way to cut spending significantly is to reform those programs. Otherwise, other social programs will suffer and taxes inevitably must rise, a lot.

No Trackbacks

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://business.theatlantic.com/mt-42/mt-tb.cgi/17161

Comments (15)


RE: "what I think would be more interesting would be total household income for 30-somethings generation-over-generation"

Well that's a start but average households are smaller, so that stat makes the improvements over the past seem smaller than they really are.

Re: It's utterly obvious that children are better off in a two-parent household from an economic standpoint -- two incomes are better than one.

Yes, two incomes are better than one. But applying this to the larger point makes the assumption that the second parent will have some income-- enough of it to make up for the loss in public benefits that a two-parent household incurs simply by reason of its existence as two married parents plus children. For the underclass at least this is an awfully big assumption and needs to be questioned. Often enough the missing men in these families are missing because they have no income: they are unemployed and perhaps unemployable. And even if they do work odd jobs they do not make enough to provide any financial help to their children.

quix0te (Replying to: Jon)

WHOAH!! Stereotype much?!
Have you TALKED to many women? For many of them, not just lower class, but middle class and upper class, they don't want to be BOTHERED with the headache of having a man around. They see minimal value in having a partner in the equation, compared to the compromises and accomodations that are part of a family, particularly a step-family.
Am I crazy?
Somebody is:
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200907/divorce

Parsley (Replying to: quix0te)

Jon, two responses:
Firstly, a phrase I've heard thrown around is "I won't marry him until he at least has the potential to support me", therefore the value of a "get married, have kids" paradigm is that procreation with no-income men is limited.
Secondly, I'll agree that public benefits act as an incentive for single parenting - but also assert that they permit coping, not prospering, and are thus a perverse incentive.

Quixote:
Fair point. But I'm also sure that in Sandra's case remaining married for 20 yrs and then retiring from the spousal game serves economic prosperity just fine.

muddledmiddle (Replying to: quix0te)

Quix0te,

With all due respect, your response is exactly the problem. The underlying notion of "man as a headache" speaks to the deep selfishness, narcissism and sense of entitlement that have crept into our self-definition and our set of expectations about what "Family" means.

Marriage, and its corresponding commitment, is about putting your partner's and children's interests ahead of your own. Without that selflessness, it cannot exist. Without the reinforcement of those simple values - values not just limited to heterosexual couples - the socially and economically proven model of a two-parent family will become a quaint notion instead of our central organizing principle.

As a family man who cheerfully chooses to live for my wife and kids, as opposed to having them live for me, I find clarity in my financial options.

The economic deprivation of various communities, and the corresponding pathologies, have a clear correlation with the break-down of stable two parent families. One cannot create good outcomes in the face of bad choices and poor judgment.

Correction:

"Medicare, military, Social Security and Medicaid - along with interest on the debt threaten to crowd out all other spending in a few decades."

You cannot talk about entitlement reform seriously without talking about runaway military spending as well.

Seth (Replying to: ???)

Excellent point. Many critics of domestic social programs have never seen an expensive piece of military hardware they didn't like. If we really want to control spending, we have to get both under control.

Paul in Athens (Replying to: ???)

Depending on your source, military expense is about 21% to just under 50% of the total budget. I suspect (because I read it) that the higher percentage combines military retirement and veterans disability into the total. Some throw in the VA and slivers of expenses from dozens of other departments just to make it sound that much higher. Maybe that's fair, maybe it isn't.

The gist of it is that ~total~ spending has to come down, and as much as I'd like for it not to be the case, taxes have to increase as well. We've GOT to shrink the debt. That can only be done by increaseing taxes, decreasing expenditures, or a combination of the two.

Paul in Athens

"Old-fashioned personal responsibility and hard work result in only a 2% chance of being poor. Astounding!"


Well, that's not very democratic of you to say.

What we need, in a democrat controlled society, are more social programs and controls over those poor souls lives. Then they won't be "poor" no more.

all points well taken.
I currently am an expat in a nordic land, and yes, from a bottom up perspective, Nordic lands have the money, programs in place, major Aryan population which have like minded interests, protestant work ethic (work means freedom), and a very, very tiny population which makes it easier to control and help those less fortunate.
Yes, strongly agree with the brookings institute on their "old fashioned" analysis. It does seem to work out that way, whichever land you live in.
The USA capitalistic system is an incentive for the gamblers and entrepreneurs of the world to really make a big splash. Ordinary folks would be better off with a more socialistic system, like Canada, and Europe.

Just to add what I myself have experienced and observed among women thinking about whether to get married... Getting involved with many young men, even those from middle class backgrounds, is basically the same as adding a sullen teenager to the household. They cost a lot of money, generate a lot of extra housework, and require a lot of psychological effort in return for not much payback. Women who work full time are reluctant to take on these high-maintenance slacker types.


I'm not saying all men are that way, but enough are that way (especially in the 21-35 age bracket) that some young women who want to get married and have kids can't find a guy who contributes ANYTHING. Guys who want to get married have to put some adult responsibility on the table. If not earning the money, then cleaning and taking care of kids and doing the other life-tending stuff that frees a breadwinner to concentrate on work. Women will work one shift (job or kids) or two (job and kids), but not three (job and kids and difficult slacker mate). That's asking too much.


Extending adolescence into people's 30s is the problem. And I think the solution is cultural, not political.

From the article: "This is an odd one and easily their least compelling argument. Here's their basis for the claim that this generation is doing worse than the last:

Today, men in their 30s earn 12 percent less than the previous generation did at the same age."

The author then dismisses this based on women earning more in relation to males.

The simple fact is that males have become for more prone to job dislocation and falling earnings due to the export of manufacturing jobs and the influx of illegals into the building trades. The latter has driven wages in these typically male occupations way down. Moreover, due to the vast number of illegals, openings for jobs like carpenter, roofer, etc have declined for native born Americans.

Other factors that contribute to falling male earnings come from liberal policies. How many oil wells are we drilling in the US? How much mining is prohibited? How much logging is prohibited? All of the foregoing, and many more are dominated by male workers and the jobs traditionally pay pretty well.

Re: kids doing better with two parents.

This turns out to be a circular argument, because couples form families and marry and have kids at a greater rate when there are good jobs available.

You are saying our economic decline is caused by individuals choosing to remain single or become single parents.

What is more accurate is to say, individuals choose to remain single and not to form a family, even in the face of pregnancy, when there are no jobs that are stable enough and pay well enough to support families.

Oh, and it is also absurd to say Brookings is 'left'.

Brookings defines the center, cough cough.

Looks like quite a bit of "correlation = causation" maybe in this presentation?

Apart from that, two comments:

Mens' lower incomes just might have something to do with leisure preference? The hours that Americans spend (waste?) on the job were and are high by international standards.

The inefficiencies in the publicly funded military-medical-eductional complexes are always greater than we think, and will take a longer, harder slog to work out than we hope. General government bureaucracy, however, will improve efficiency quite well year after year with sustained, informed leadership pressure. But in both, crash efficiency drives will crash.

Post a comment