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Nov 11 2009, 3:30 pm
Jeffrey Sachs on Obama's "Inadequacy"
Esteemed economist Jeffrey Sachs has a column in the Financial Times today on Obama's failure to apply the breaks to the runaway train of unemployment. In a nutshell, he says both Republican's tax cut orthodoxy and the White House's misguided stimulus fail to address the structural changes we'll need to create jobs that last. I'll meet Sachs halfway here.
I agree with Sachs that we've got a jobs crisis. I've been yapping about the administration's failure to address rising joblessness today. It's both good policy and good politics to pass short-term measures -- like extending jobless benefits and giving direct aid to the states and maybe even considering a payroll tax holiday, so long as it's capped at a low income level to concentrate the benefits in the hands of poorer Americans who are more likely to spend their next dollar.
Sachs triptych solution to fix our job crisis is long-term: 1) Greater exports (2) Massive expansion of education spending and job training and (3) Invest in energy and infrastructure.* But it seems to me that Sachs is answering today's crisis with tomorrow's solutions. Certainly the United States needs a long-term strategy to grow the economy when the recession is fully behind us. But the recession isn't in the rear-view mirror -- it's hanging onto the car bumper for dear life. We're all still feeling the drag, and we need to shake off this unemployment now.
So I guess I'm confused. Sachs writes, "The Obama administration's stimulus policies are not well-targeted" to save jobs today. Then he proposes solutions that won't pay off for many tomorrows, if not months, or years. We'll need to think about the long game, and I'm glad Sachs is eager to kick off the brainstorming. But this column is the right answer to the wrong question.
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*Those last two ideas are, Sachs acknowlegdes, somewhat in line with Obama's 2010 budget, which vastly expands college education spending and energy investment. In fact, between $50 billion earmarked for green energy in the stimulus and another $150 billion in the budget, Obama is making a $200 billion bet on green energy to drive the economy in the next few years.
I agree with Sachs that we've got a jobs crisis. I've been yapping about the administration's failure to address rising joblessness today. It's both good policy and good politics to pass short-term measures -- like extending jobless benefits and giving direct aid to the states and maybe even considering a payroll tax holiday, so long as it's capped at a low income level to concentrate the benefits in the hands of poorer Americans who are more likely to spend their next dollar.
Sachs triptych solution to fix our job crisis is long-term: 1) Greater exports (2) Massive expansion of education spending and job training and (3) Invest in energy and infrastructure.* But it seems to me that Sachs is answering today's crisis with tomorrow's solutions. Certainly the United States needs a long-term strategy to grow the economy when the recession is fully behind us. But the recession isn't in the rear-view mirror -- it's hanging onto the car bumper for dear life. We're all still feeling the drag, and we need to shake off this unemployment now.
So I guess I'm confused. Sachs writes, "The Obama administration's stimulus policies are not well-targeted" to save jobs today. Then he proposes solutions that won't pay off for many tomorrows, if not months, or years. We'll need to think about the long game, and I'm glad Sachs is eager to kick off the brainstorming. But this column is the right answer to the wrong question.
_________
*Those last two ideas are, Sachs acknowlegdes, somewhat in line with Obama's 2010 budget, which vastly expands college education spending and energy investment. In fact, between $50 billion earmarked for green energy in the stimulus and another $150 billion in the budget, Obama is making a $200 billion bet on green energy to drive the economy in the next few years.










In a few years we'll just send our rent and mortgage payments to the Chineese.
The main problem I see in Obama's effort, and in what appears to be prevailing opinion in Congress, is that the stimulus is too small. It's hard to argue that Keynesian methods don't work today when they have not really been tried.
Our predicament is different than that faced in the 1930s. Today too many manufacturing jobs have been shipped to low wage countries overseas. So it's important, as Sachs recommends, to invest the really big bucks in work that will be here, and in developing products that will be needed to solve future problems.
Tax cuts we can and must forget about. These have led to the freeloading mentality enjoyed by the wealthy classes, and the destruction of the middle and poorer classes. We have to deal simultaneously with controlling the national debt and making greater social investment. The first tool for this is a steeply graduated income tax.
After World War II we lowered the national debt from 120% of GDP to 35% of GDP by 1980. Tax rates were up. In addition the social investment (recall, for example, the GI bill, of which I was a grateful beneficiary) led to greater overall productivity.