U.S. unemployment leaped to 10.2% in October, from 9.8% in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The U.S. economy lost 190,000 more jobs during the month, putting the number of unemployed Americans at 15.7 million. The 0.4% surge is highest the since May. Wall Street won't be happy either: it predicted the rate to increase modestly to 9.9%. October's losses push the unemployment rate into double digits for the first time since 1983, as it edges closer to the post-Great Depression high of 10.8% hit in 1982. I went through the report, looking for some glimmer of hope, but came up empty.
Before any analysis of what these numbers mean, here are a few charts that show the misery, from BLS:
If you're looking for some kind of good news, the closest you'll probably find is that the economy lost fewer jobs in October than in September. But the losses were still more than in August.
Also worrying is the discouraged workers picture. For the past few months I've been commenting on the positive trend of fewer discouraged workers. That would imply that Americans are feeling more confident about the labor market and also indicate that their entering the workforce might be part of what's driving up unemployment. This month, however, that trend ends:
Really ugly. That's the highest number of discouraged workers we've seen since the start of the recession. If you include discouraged workers, the national rate is 10.7%, seasonally adjusted.
More Americans are also unemployed for longer than they were a year ago:
New legislation progressed this week that would help Americans who have been unemployed for an extended period by providing jobless benefits for longer. This picture shows why that's needed. A bill like this had been talked about for months, so it's suspicious interesting to note that Congress coincidentally finally moved on it the week when the rate would jump into double digits. Could they have had prior knowledge?
Still perplexing is the increasing variance between seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted unemployment:
These curves continue to move apart. This month, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased by 0.4% to 10.2%, while the non-seasonally adjusted rate was unchanged at 9.5%.
Lastly, Atlantic readers didn't do as well this month with the poll. Only 9% chose the option "10.1% or higher." Everyone else was more optimistic. But those who got it wrong shouldn't beat themselves up: I think few saw this jump coming. And for those who did -- was it just a good guess or do you know something that no one else does? Here are those results:
Agreed. Very discouraging. Your analysis doesn't address the 9.5% (annualized) increase in 'productivity' which would have helped me understand this better. In our present economy (fewer production lines) how is 'productivity' measured? What does it mean for the future that productivity increases so much while employers are continuing to cull their workforce? Are the industries that increase their productivity different from the ones laying off? It's a meaningful number that I don't know how to fit into the puzzle.
Right, well, I addressed productivity earlier this week, so check that out and see if it helps. But more unemployed makes sense in light of higher productivity. Basically, that means that workers with jobs are being asked increasingly to pick up the slack.
Thanx. Missed that one.
One of the most alarming aspects of the report in my eyes is that the greatest job losses for the month were in construction, manufacturing, and retail sales. These industries are really the corner stones of our economy. When those industries are going good, the economy is going good. When their going bad, well you can see how things are.
For people that are currently unemployed and looking for work all we can tell them to do is have patience. All we can do is urge people to keep at it and stay out there sending out resumes. I think they are doing that. Remember that the unemployment rate only counts people that are actively searching for work. There are people out there that have become so dissatisfied with the situation that they have simply given up.
Recovery is indeed happening, but its at a slow pace and that’s what is so frustrating for a lot of people. Unfortunately there are no easy fixes for the situation. Sure we can throw more band aid stimulus packages out there, but any effect from those is going to be short term. The only thing that can really fix this economy is time.
Check out my blog and insight on the latest unemployment numbers at.... http://www.thedebtgazette.com/2009/11/unemployment-rate-hits-26-year-high/