Marc Ambinder
Marc is an associate editor at the Atlantic, where he curates its influential political channel and contributes to the magazine. He is also a contributing editor to National Journal. In late 2007, he was named chief political consultant to CBS News. Marc spent a year and a half at the Hotline, where he was the founding editor of "Hotline On Call," a pathbreaking political news blog. He was a producer and reporter for the ABC News Political and was one of the founders of ABC's "The Note.” He's a 2001 graduate of Harvard and lives in Washington, D.C.
Recently by Marc Ambinder
Nov 6 2009, 3:01PM
The Deficit Choice: What The White House Is Thinking
Huge deficits will be omnipresent throughout President Obama's first term, complicating his administration's messaging efforts on the economy. But advisers separate the political repercussions from the actual underlying fiscal and monetary policies. In some ways, the short-term politics of the deficit are negligible. They're preferable to the short-term politics of a much higher unemployment rate with no economic growth -- and a smaller deficit.
Oct 22 2009, 3:57PM
Parsing The Responses To New Executive Pay Rules
Citigroup says:
"We have received the decision from the Special Master for the 2009 compensation plan for our senior executive officers and certain of our most highly compensated employees. We are pleased this decision has been issued and we will now work to comply with the plan's requirements."
Yes sir. Right away sir. How high do you want us to jump?
Oct 19 2009, 12:22PM
Fake "Chamber" Press Release Dupes Reuters
"We believe that strong climate legislation is the best way to ensure American innovation, create jobs, and make sure the U.S. and the world are on track to reduce global carbon emissions, and to provide for the needs of the American business community for generations to come."
"Climatologists tell us that if we don't enact dramatic reductions in carbon emissions today, within 5 years we could begin facing the propagating feedback loops of runaway climate change. That would mean a disruption of food and water supplies worldwide, with the result of mass migrations, famines, and death on a scale never witnessed before.
"Needless to say, that would be bad for business," the fake "Donahue" says.
"We at the Chamber have tried to keep climate science from interfering with business. But without a stable climate, there will be no business. We need business more than we need relentlessly higher returns."
Whatever soul-searching the Chamber might be engaging in following the high-profile departure of several companies, a wholesale reversal of this sort isn't in the cards.
The fake domain name, chamber-of-commerce.us, is registered to "Support and Committment," Inc. of Malden Street in Manhattan. An e-mail to the contact listed has yet to be returned.
Oct 7 2009, 4:54PM
The Baucus Bill Cuts The Deficit
That loud sound you heard just a moment ago from Capitol Hill was the collective exhale of Democrats: Sen. Max Baucus's Finance Committee health care proposal won't add to the deficit over 10 years, according to the magical Congressional Budget Office. Read their score summary here: Baucus.pdf: In fact, it would reduce deficit projections by $81 billion dollars, costing a total of $829 billion. The bill wouldn't achieve universal coverage -- excluding illegal immigrants, it would leave about 16 million non-elderly Americans without health insurance.
Jul 27 2009, 9:35AM
Obesity Politics And The Weight Of The Nation
I was thinking about Kessler's book, which is currently the talk of the weight-loss crowd, on the morning that Centers for Disease Control hosts its first ever Weight of the Nation Conference on obesity. I'll be blogging from that conference over of the next few days as I gather final string for a magazine article about the politics of weight and obesity.
Kessler isn't speaking -- I think he's in Aspen, speaking to intellectuals gathered there for another food conference -- and I'll be interested to see if his ideas are well represented. Kessler represents the wing of the anti-obesity movement that favors confrontation and believes that only if the public gets angry about this manipulation of their diet can they -- we -- possibly begin to combat the obesity plague. Many obesity researchers I've spoken with over the past several months are afraid of confrontation, even though the physical and social science evidence is pretty compelling: we aren't what we eat; we are what the food companies want us to be.
I'm still not sure that, on balance, one can demonize the food industry for lowering their prices, making the food supply safer than it ever was, and feeding more people. Our policy incentives are misaligned; we spend billions on subsidies for the cheap raw foodstuffs that line the aisles of our drug stores. By one estimate, even if you could wave a magic wand and change the diet preferences of Americans overnight, you'd need to roughly double the production of fruits and vegetables to keep up with demand.
Companies do respond to public pressure. Even though McDonald's denied that Morgan Spurlock's "Super Size Me" movie led to the removal of that category from the store's menus, a former company official admitted to me that the movie did exactly that. A few years ago, the Kraft corporation admirably reviewed all of its advertising aimed and children and seems to be leading the industry out of its profit-based blindness when it comes to the moral effects of marketing. The restuarant industry has relaxed its opposition to menu labeling, although this move is mostly strategic and probably won't lead to better health outcomes.
Jul 17 2009, 1:54PM
The Most Important Health Care Story Of The Past 24 Hours Is...
(B) The Congressional Budget Office director dares to speak truth to power: none of the major health care bills will reduce costs in the short term and will add to the deficit in the near term.
I was going to pick (B), until I read (C) -- the subhead to a story about how Massachusetts is on the verge of abandoning the fee for service system -- the blood vessels, if you will, of modern American health care.
The subhead is this: "Hospitals and doctors may be put on budget." This change, which was recommended by a commission of stakeholders including doctors and hospitals, is exactly the type of "delivery" reform that health economists are always touting. In essence, every insured person would receive an adjusted share of a predetermined amount of money that insurers and government programs will use to pay for their health expenses for a year. As the Boston Globe notes, "[p]roviders would have to work within a predetermined budget, forcing them to better coordinate patients' care, which could improve quality and reduce costs." There are many details to work out, and the devil lurks: the "shares" must be adjusted for socioeconomic status, different types of treatments, chronic conditions and other factors. Doctors can't see their income disappear or dry up suddenly, or else the reforms would be untenable. The public can't perceive the new scheme as a form of rationing, although health care reform is inevitably a form of rationing. Under the state's universal health insurance scheme, which looks a bit like what Democrats are proposing for the country, everyone (sans certain categories of non-citizen immigrants) is required to hold or purchase health insurance, either through their employer or through a "connecter"-like exchange system. Costs have increased fairly dramatically, as was predicted. By shifting to a system where outcomes determine payment more than services rendered, it might be possible to contain costs -- or at least to manage their growth.
Jun 18 2009, 1:00PM
Health Care: Dead, Dying, Or Delayed? Orrrrszzzzaaaag!
How did we get here? Ask Peter Orszag.
Jun 17 2009, 5:14PM
The Real Story On Health Care Costs
One thing to remember, though. It's not really correct to say that a HELP-like scheme will necessarily inflate the deficit. In fact, on the expenditures side, the Finance bill is going to look extremely similar. There will be subsidies for the poor and working class, tax credits for small business, some increases in what providers are paid, etc. Just like in HELP. In addition, Finance will have one very large chunk of extra expenditures -- a Medicaid expansion -- that HELP doesn't.
But Finance will also have the revenue and offsets -- some combination of employer mandate, exclusion reform, Medicare savings, redacted Medicare Advantage payments, and tax hikes on the rich. And when you put those all together, it should be revenue neutral.
Jun 17 2009, 11:55AM
Re-Regulation and The Markets: An Upgrade Or An Overhaul?
The big debate: are the regulatory reforms the President intends to introduce today more like a Windows Service Pack upgrade than a whole new architecture and interface? FinReg 1.5 or FinRef 2.0? FinReg Vista? FinReg 7? (You get the idea.)
Jun 12 2009, 12:40PM
Larry Summers Defends His Boss -- And Previews More Interventions
Jun 11 2009, 1:40PM
Health Reform: Getting Doctors On Board
Jun 11 2009, 12:59PM
Health Reform: Diagnosis, Cure, In Progress
Jun 1 2009, 9:19AM
The New GM: Five Political Challenges
1. Convincing the country that this restructuring -- and they'll call it a "restructuring" -- is an inevitable consequence of a process that began during the Bush administration. So far, the public seems to believe this, but the longer the government fiddles with the industry, the more Obama will be seen as the fiddler.
May 29 2009, 9:50AM
Obama's New Capitalism
And again, the administration seems to be rewriting the rules of capitalism to fashion a deal to its liking.
May 7 2009, 5:09PM
The List. Of Banks. That Need. Cushions. And Those Cushions.
Apr 30 2009, 9:15AM
Chrysler In Bankruptcy; Administration Works To Contain Fallout
"After a month of tireless negotiations, the Administration went into yesterday afternoon with the full support of Chrysler's key stakeholders, including the UAW and the largest creditors. That support remains," a senior administration official e-mailed this morning.
Apr 3 2009, 1:13PM
The Mark to Market Showdown
Yesterday, the Federal Accounting Standards Board voted to relax mark-to-market rules for mortgage-backed securities. The banks liked this move, because it allows them to hold off on writing down some of their assets and provides the near-term illusion of more liquidity. I asked a Treasury official if this wouldn't reduce incentives for bigger banks to participate in PPIP. It shouldn't, the official replied, "because the actual value of the asset is not changing. It allows them to change their accounting practices, but the market value of the asset doesn't change."
Mar 19 2009, 9:17AM
Toxic assets and AIG
Mar 16 2009, 3:13PM
AIG and the rule of law
Here's a different way of looking at the AIG bonus shame: do we want the United States government to make it a practice to breech legal contracts just because.... well, because of populist outrage? Put another way, do we want to live under the rule of a legal system where emotional pressure can abrogate contracts?
If it's so important not to pay this money out -- and indeed, that might be a political imperative -- then the executive branch of the government has two real options. One, it can force AIG into bankruptcy, which it's not prepared to do. My sense is that the government believes that the consequences of an AIG bankruptcy would be far more parlous for the economy than the consequences of paying the derivitative traders their ill-gotten bonuses. Or two, it can open the shame spigot.
Earlier, I wrote that AIG might want to force the traders to sue for their bonuses. That ought to be an internal company decision; the government shouldn't force people to sue to enforce their rights when those rights are unpopular.
Feb 26 2009, 11:55AM
Budget Easter Egg: Watch Those Extra Fees!
Feb 26 2009, 11:05AM
The Budget, Doc
Big/Politically interesting items:
1. $4 billion for more Census funding, Mr. Boehner, on top of $1 billion in the stimulus package.
2. A $250 billion TARP "reserve fund;" actually, $750 billion, but the government expects to get most of it back.
3. Adds money to "build comprehensive, coordinated, high-quality early childhood "Zero to Five" education "systems."
4. Lots more money for energy, including billions to modernize the electric grid
5. Six billion more dollars for cancer research; 1 billion dollars to improve the FDA's safety and inspection regimes.
6. To offset people who've defaulted on their mortgage, the budget would pay for 1.3 million more government-subsidized rental properties.
7. A la the One Campaign, it puts the government "on a path" to double its foreign aid budget.
8. There's $5 billion for high-speed rail and $800 million for the next generaton of air traffic control.
9. It increases the EPA budget by 34% over FY 2009 levels.
10. It increases NASA's budget by $2.4 billion
11. It increases funding for the National Science Foundation by 16% over 2008 levels
And more:
Feb 26 2009, 10:18AM
TARP III = $750b - $500 = $250b
Feb 26 2009, 10:12AM
A falloff in charitable contributions?
The first battle lines of the FY 2010 budget are hereby drawn; figures as diverse as CNBC's Maria Bartimoro and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer say that any limitation on itemized deductions for taxpayers earning over $200,000 individually will severely limit charitable giving. Hoyer calls it "clearly one of the greatest concerns." Bartiromo worries about the "unintended consequences." But this sounds like a talking point. If wealthy people want to give money, then they should give, regardless of tax benefits. Also: if you're inclined to oppose higher taxes on rich people, wouldn't this be the first way you'd try to sell your opposition to the American people -- by essentially fretting about the huge drop in charitable contributions? My thought experiment is: if tax reform down the line were to gut all deductions, would charitable contributions totally dry up?
Feb 25 2009, 8:10PM
The Obama Budget Picture Forms
Call it the White House austerity plan. President Obama's budget outline for 2010, to be released tomorrow, assumes that committee chairs will cap non-defense discretionary spending increases at one half of one percent over 2009 levels, according to people who have been briefed on the subject. Federal workers would receive raises of approximately 1 percent, or about eight tenths of a percent above the core inflation rate.
The Democrats' omnibus appropriations bill for the rest of the 2009 fiscal year increases domestic spending by an average over departments of more than six percent over 2008 levels. In 2010, the White House wants to spend about $537 billion to fund the Department of Defense, and it plans to ask for as much as $170 billion to fund continuing operations in Afghanistan and a drawndown in Iraq.
Feb 25 2009, 3:10PM
It's Just A Little Quiz, Banks
Attention markets: The government has a plan to steel your spines, to help you gain confidence in banks - specifically - a "buffer of confidence" for the largest financial institutions. Here is how a senior Treasury official, briefing reporters this afternoon, described the premise behind the administration's new Capital Assistance Program for banks.
"Our hope is that over time, by creating some certainty around a source of common equity for these banks, over time, that that will be confidence creating, because [everyone] will know that that bank has access to high quality common equity over time."
Here's what's going to happen:
Feb 25 2009, 12:59PM
Obama Outlines Principles For Regulatory Reform
President Barack Obama is pledging that major regulatory reform of financial markets will help, not hinder, future economic prosperity. Wall Street may have banks on their mind -- and the Treasury is providing details about stress tests today -- but they're going to want to listen to Obama later, too. An administration official provided a preview of the President's remarks. They're not detailed proposals, but they provide some hints about the direction Obama wants to follow.
Feb 23 2009, 2:37PM
The politics of the Citibank tango
Today, regulators, Treasury officials and bank executives are working through a plan that would inject the bank with billions in new capital. At the same time, they're asking Wall Street to calm its collective nervous system. The government won't pull Citibank into receivership, but a jittery stock market might force their hand.
Feb 23 2009, 1:23PM
An honest budget
Politically, a lot of the questions the Beltway wants to know -- will it kill the Bush tax cuts (yes), will it keep the estate tax (yes), will it incorporate costs from Afghanistan and Iraq (yes) -- have been answered.
But there's a lot we don't know.
Feb 23 2009, 8:37AM
Obama's Budget Projects Ten Years Out
In an effort to trim the weeds that usually surround such document, the budget as written provides full project cost for Iraq and Afghanistan; it assumes the cost of fixing the Alternative Minimum Tax each year; it does not assume that physician payments for Medicare will be cut, because Congress regularly blocks the planned cuts. (Note: the budget will include program cuts to Medicare Advantage, but they are not factored in.) The budget also recognizes the likelihood of natural disasters instead of assuming that the heavens won't fall for another decade.
"Pretending that the budget has this money available may be gratifying, but it's an accounting sleight-of-hand, not reality," said Jennifer Psaki, an administration spokesperson.
Officials say that gimmick budgeting would have given them $250 billion per year in breathing room: past budgets have included AMT fixes for one year; the Obama budget includes them in all years. The budget assumes not a zero budget for what are euphemistically termed "oversees military contingencies," but full funding over 10 years.
Feb 20 2009, 5:08PM
The White House encourages Santelli, on purpose
This is very simple. White House press secretary Robert Gibbs went out of his way today to blast CNBC's Rick Santelli for his "rant" yesterday against Obama's mortgage assistance plan. The early press reaction asks why the White House would give Santelli free publicity and elevate him to Official status? Easy: they'd rather the opposition be identified with Santelli and stock brokers than with, say, a Joe the Plumber type (but who actually is a plumber and who has serious real reservations about the mortgage plan). Let opponents of the plan get into a tizzy, and let them have Santelli -- whose regular guy creds have to be established -- as their spoxman. Because, as it stands, ordinary folks don't much trust Wall Street these days.... Still, as Chris Good writes below, the Santelli moment was real enough, and it might catalyze something among conservatives, and it might be the type of political activity that an enterprising Republican presidential candidate can take advantage of.
Feb 19 2009, 2:35PM
The market mover fallacy
Added to the list of political fallacies I've started...well.. I am starting, right now: the market mover fallacy. Check out this rant by CNBC's Rick Santelli, who is outraged at President Obama's mortgage subsidization plan. That's perfectly reasonable. But the context surrounding his discontent, at least as posted by Matt Drudge, seems to be the news that the equity markets hated the plan. (Check out the reaction of his live audience). Therefore, the plan must be bad.
Feb 12 2009, 5:37PM
The granite cracks: Judd Gregg withdraws
A reporter's notebook:
Sen.
Judd Gregg's decision to withdraw caught the White House by surprise.
The press office found out about it at about the same time as the world
did. If senior administration officials had advance notice, they did
not widely disseminate it.
The White House loses a major talking point in bipartisanship and a major player on fiscal discipline and at least one news cycle.
Feb 9 2009, 10:30AM
What's a depression?
Today, President Obama travels from a relatively prosperous Washington, D.C. to Elkhart, Indiana, a city that is, by most measures, suffering from a depression. It has the most unemployment per capita of any city in the country. It's still ayptical, but becoming more typical. There are many cities in the upper midwest that will see their unemployment rate exceed 10% and their contraction rate grow to above 5 percent. There will be a deep and persistent depression for certain parts of the country; others, like Northeastern cities, cities with service economies, will be able to escape the economic duress by surviving a recession only, so deep is the social safety network in our urban areas. The Senate slashed health and education spending and aid to states from the stimulus package before passing it; these cuts will hurt the poor and middle class in urban areas, but they're going to be more trouble for lower middle class whites across the Midwest.
Feb 6 2009, 4:02PM
It's OK to be afraid of something that's really scary
In the case of the economic crisis, though, maybe Americans aren't panicking as much as they should: the job market spiraldown continues, and more apocalyptically, the rate of decline is picking up. The labor force is contracting rapidly; the unemployment rate is close to its 1990s peak at 7.8%. (Want higher than that? Go to the 1970s.) Americans are working fewer hours, too. Scary! Christina Romer, the White House's chief economist, noted that of the 3.6 million jobs lost over the past year, most of them have been lost in the last four months. The rate is comparable to the rate recorded by economists in 1938, during the....yep.
Feb 3 2009, 1:00PM
Daschle withdraws
Feb 2 2009, 2:10PM
Q & A on Daschle: who knew what and why that matters
Based on interviews with aides and public documents provided to reporters by the finance committee, here's what is known about former Sen. Tom Daschle, his tax liaibilities, and his disclosures to the friendly White House and to the friendly-but-constitutionally neutral Senate Finance Committee.
Jan 28 2009, 6:29PM
Republican discipline
It may well be the third inning of nine -- this is a Robert Gibbs analogy -- but it's Democrats who are crowding the plate.
Jan 28 2009, 4:24PM
The Union Rise, Explained
The labor-backed Economic Policy Institute calls the rise in the percentage of union jobs in the country "remarkable" given the current economic climate. Given the collapse of industry in the Midwest, in particular, it's a little jarring.
But it's easily explained, I think.
Jan 27 2009, 4:51PM
TARP Dispenses $386 Million To Banks
Jan 27 2009, 11:15AM
Scoring The CBO Score Of The House Democrats' Stimulus Plan
Here's the document.
Here's an exegesis:
Jan 26 2009, 3:30PM
Interview: Daniel Weiss On Climate Change And What Happens Next
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